THE FRIGHTENING TRUTH OF WHY IRAN WANTS A BOMB
by Amir Taheri
Telegraph
April 16, 2006
Last Monday, just before he announced that Iran had gatecrashed “the
nuclear club”, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad disappeared for several
hours. He was having a khalvat (tête-a-tête) with the
Hidden Imam, the 12th and last of the imams of Shiism who went into
“grand occultation” in 941.
According to Shia lore, the Imam is a messianic figure who, although in
hiding, remains the true Sovereign of the World. In every generation,
the Imam chooses 36 men, (and, for obvious reasons, no women) naming
them the owtad or “nails”, whose presence, hammered into mankind’s
existence, prevents the universe from “falling off”. Although the
“nails” are not known to common mortals, it is, at times, possible to
identify one thanks to his deeds. It is on that basis that some of
Ahmad-inejad’s more passionate admirers insist that he is a “nail”, a
claim he has not discouraged. For example, he has claimed that last
September, as he addressed the United Nations’ General Assembly in New
York, the “Hidden Imam drenched the place in a sweet light”.
Last year, it was after another khalvat that Ahmadinejad announced his
intention to stand for president. Now, he boasts that the Imam gave him
the presidency for a single task: provoking a “clash of civilisations”
in which the Muslim world, led by Iran, takes on the “infidel” West,
led by the United States, and defeats it in a slow but prolonged
contest that, in military jargon, sounds like a low intensity,
asymmetrical war.
In Ahmadinejad’s analysis, the rising Islamic “superpower” has decisive
advantages over the infidel. Islam has four times as many young men of
fighting age as the West, with its ageing populations. Hundreds of
millions of Muslim “ghazis” (holy raiders) are keen to
become martyrs while the infidel youths, loving life and fearing death,
hate to fight. Islam also has four-fifths of the world’s oil reserves,
and so controls the lifeblood of the infidel. More importantly, the US,
the only infidel power still capable of fighting, is hated by most
other nations.
According to this analysis, spelled out in commentaries by
Ahmadinejad’s strategic guru, Hassan Abassi, known as the “Dr Kissinger
of Islam”, President George W Bush is an aberration, an exception to a
rule under which all American presidents since Truman, when faced with
serious setbacks abroad, have “run away”. Iran’s current strategy,
therefore, is to wait Bush out. And that, by “divine coincidence”,
corresponds to the time Iran needs to develop its nuclear arsenal, thus
matching the only advantage that the infidel enjoys.
Moments after Ahmadinejad announced “the atomic miracle”, the head of
the Iranian nuclear project, Ghulamreza Aghazadeh, unveiled plans for
manufacturing 54,000 centrifuges, to enrich enough uranium for hundreds
of nuclear warheads. “We are going into mass production,” he boasted.
The Iranian plan is simple: playing the diplomatic game for another two
years until Bush becomes a “lame-duck”, unable to take military action
against the mullahs, while continuing to develop nuclear weapons.
Thus do not be surprised if, by the end of the 12 days still left of
the United Nations’ Security Council “deadline”, Ahmadinejad announces
a “temporary suspension” of uranium enrichment as a “confidence
building measure”. Also, don’t be surprised if some time in June he
agrees to ask the Majlis (the Islamic parliament) to consider signing
the additional protocols of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Such manoeuvres would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) director, Muhammad El-Baradei, and Britain’s Foreign Secretary,
Jack Straw, to congratulate Iran for its “positive gestures” and
denounce talk of sanctions, let alone military action. The confidence
building measures would never amount to anything, but their
announcement would be enough to prevent the G8 summit, hosted by Russia
in July, from moving against Iran.
While waiting Bush out, the Islamic Republic is intent on doing all it
can to consolidate its gains in the region. Regime changes in Kabul and
Baghdad have altered the status quo in the Middle East. While
Bush is determined to create a Middle East that is democratic and
pro-Western, Ahmadinejad is equally determined that the region should
remain Islamic but pro-Iranian. Iran is now the strongest presence in
Afghanistan and Iraq, after the US. It has turned Syria and Lebanon
into its outer defences, which means that, for the first time since the
7th century, Iran is militarily present on the coast of the
Mediterranean. In a massive political jamboree in Teheran last week,
Ahmadinejad also assumed control of the “Jerusalem Cause”, which
includes annihilating Israel “in one storm”, while launching a
take-over bid for the cash-starved Hamas government in the West Bank
and Gaza.
Ahmadinejad has also reactivated Iran’s network of Shia organisations
in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Yemen, while resuming
contact with Sunni fundamentalist groups in Turkey, Egypt, Algeria and
Morocco. From childhood, Shia boys are told to cultivate two qualities.
The first is entezar, the capacity patiently to wait for the Imam to
return. The second is taajil, the actions needed to hasten the return.
For the Imam’s return will coincide with an apocalyptic battle between
the forces of evil and righteousness, with evil ultimately routed. If
the infidel loses its nuclear advantage, it could be worn down in a
long, low-intensity war at the end of which surrender to Islam would
appear the least bad of options. And that could be a signal for the
Imam to reappear.
At the same time, not to forget the task of hastening the Mahdi’s
second coming, Ahamdinejad will pursue his provocations. On Monday, he
was as candid as ever: “To those who are angry with us, we have one
thing to say: be angry until you die of anger!”
His adviser, Hassan Abassi, is rather more eloquent. “The Americans are
impatient,” he says, “at the first sight of a setback, they run away.
We, however, know how to be patient. We have been weaving carpets for
thousands of years.”
• Amir Taheri is a former Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran’s largest
daily newspaper, but now lives in Europe